Canon executives said in an interview that Camera industry will shrink further more by 50% in upcoming years. But, at the same time Fujifilm totally disagrees with Canon’s prediction, they believe that Market growth will depend on innovation of camera makers.
Dave Etchells/Imaging Resource: So one thing we’re asking everybody is Mitarai-san from Canon is on record recently…
<crosstalk, laughter>
DE: You’ve been hearing that too? Yeah, and so he says that the interchangeable-lens business is going to contract by half, over the next two years. Do you agree with that assessment? What are your own projections?
Toshihisa Iida/Fujifilm: Totally, totally disagree.
DE: You totally disagree.
<laughter>
TI: We really just cannot believe that projection of Canon’s.
DE: Yeah. What are your projections, what do you think the market will do overall?
TI: I think it all depends on what innovation and what influence comes from the manufacturers. It’s our mission to make the market viable. So I think our projection is there’s a lot of room even to grow further in the camera market.
DE: It might even grow? (!)
TI: Yeah, yeah, yeah. If we look at the Asian market, there’s a huge population over there. Some countries may decline, but some countries soon will change to growth. I think overall, the global camera market, you know.
Do share your thoughts with us
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source – Imagine resource
He’s completely correct, at least if we believe the lessons of history. SLR camera sales in the 1970s were very stable and fairly small… most people used Instamatics. Pushing SLRs in consumer markets, incorporating autoexposure and then autofocus, sales went up, as more people bought cameras, but also, because established used all re-purchased cameras in a relatively short time, rather than every 10 years or so.
Then digital hit.. and it was terrible. But the promise of it was so compelling, many of us bought and re-bought cameras. The camera I bought last month is my 9th digital ILC… I’m not even counting P&S models. So the market peaked in a bubble. And now, that bubble is over. Today’s cameras are reliable, excellent quality, etc.. but not day and night better than 2-4 years ago.
The technology is currently mature… until it isn’t. Whomever comes up with the next must-have technology will sell lots of cameras again.
On the other hand, Canon and Fujifilm can be simultaneously correct. Canon’s projecting sales based on their plans, Fujifilm is basing their notion, presumably, on confidence in what they’re doing next. Canon has always been more concerned about competing with themselves than anyone else. Now, tied with Nikon as the weakest FF mirrorless lineup, they risk a few bad years playing catchup with everyone else.
The next innovation would be 3D glasses-free displays and 3D cameras to take advantage of this. 2D displays are getting a bit dated and 2D photos a dime a dozen now.
I am not sure who will turn out to be correct, but Fujifilm got it all wrong with H1 with IBIS, with body as big as some FF cameras. A commercial flop originally priced well above T3, now selling for considerably less than T3.
Another flop may be coming with their huge 200mm f2 lens for USD5000+ and soon to be released 33mm f1.0. Former was originally USD6000 now being offered for 1000 less.
I certainly would not bet on Fujifilm being correct.